In a surprising turn of events, Hungary's voters have expressed a strong desire to maintain their country's membership in the European Union (EU), despite years of anti-EU rhetoric from their prime minister, Viktor Orbán. This poll, conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), reveals a fascinating contrast between the public's sentiment and the government's stance.
The Paradox of Hungary's EU Membership
With an overwhelming 77% of voters supporting EU membership, it's clear that Hungarians value their place in the bloc. This is particularly intriguing given Orbán's consistent portrayal of the EU as an adversary. The survey also highlights a trust deficit, with three-quarters of respondents expressing trust in the EU, despite Orbán's efforts to paint a different picture.
A Call for Recalibration
What makes this poll especially fascinating is the desire for change expressed by a significant portion of voters, including many of Orbán's supporters. Nearly half of Fidesz voters want a reset in Hungary's EU engagement, indicating a potential shift in the political landscape. This desire for change is not limited to one political camp, but rather seems to be a broader sentiment among the Hungarian population.
Domestic Priorities Take Center Stage
When it comes to voting intentions, domestic issues appear to be the primary concern for many Hungarians. The desire for change, peace, and security, as well as concerns over corruption, public services, and the cost of living, take precedence over EU-related matters. This suggests that while Hungarians value their EU membership, they also have specific domestic priorities that need addressing.
A Different Hungary
The survey's authors, Piotr Buras and Pawel Zerka, note that the results paint a different picture of Hungary than the one Orbán presents to the world. They argue that the next government, regardless of its political affiliation, will have a mandate to adopt a very different approach to EU relations. This is a significant development, as it indicates a potential shift in Hungary's foreign policy stance, moving away from the combative and disruptive tactics employed by Orbán.
Foreign Policy Divides
While there is a general consensus among voters on the need for a different approach to the war in Ukraine, the poll also highlights deep divides on specific foreign policy issues. For instance, Fidesz voters overwhelmingly reject further financial support for Kyiv, while Tisza voters are more divided. Similarly, there are stark differences in perceptions of Russia, with Fidesz voters viewing Moscow as an adversary far less frequently than Tisza voters.
A Cautious Outlook
The authors caution that while a change in government may lead to a more cooperative Hungary in its dealings with Brussels, there are limits to how constructive its foreign policy can become, particularly regarding Ukraine. They advise EU partners to manage their expectations and work with the new government to establish a new normal in Hungary's foreign policy.
In my opinion, this poll is a testament to the resilience of democratic values and the power of public opinion. It shows that despite the efforts of a nationalist leader to shape public perception, the people of Hungary have their own independent views and priorities. This is a fascinating development and a reminder of the importance of listening to the voices of the electorate.
